The (In)famous Election

Abstract

Chapter 8 examines the case of the Russian partisan intervention in the 2016 U.S. elections in light of this book’s arguments and the currently available information. It first analyzes the causes of this intervention, finding preliminary support for the theoretical framework on why such meddling occurs. It then studies the effects of the Russian covert intervention on the election results, with the main focus on the hacking and document-leaking component, using multiple methods: estimating their effects using PEIG and aggregate data from the U.S. in 2016, two pre-election surveys with relevant questions, and Google search data on these leaks in the U.S. and the key “swing states.” It finds that the Russian intervention had a significant pro-Trump effect on the results and it was probably large enough to have led Hillary Clinton to lose at least 75 EC votes—sufficient to lead to her defeat in the electoral college.