FARIMA MODELING OF SUNSPOT HALE CYCLES TIME SERIES

Abstract

The influence of solar activity on climate system at regional or global scales cannot be neglected. In this study, we will stimulate full-length sunspot time series (1932–2014) and all four Hale cycles by fractional auto regressive integrated moving average (FARIMA ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text])) model. By minimizing Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian–Schwarz information criterion (BIC) and Hannan–Quinn information criterion (HIC), the best FARIMA model for full-length sunspot time series is [Formula: see text] where [Formula: see text] is the back shift operator and [Formula: see text] is a white noise.