The Evolution of the Italian Power System to Support the National Goal of 55% of Renewables on Electricity Consumption

Abstract

With the Decree of 10 November 2017, the new National Energy Strategy (NES2017) was adopted by the Italian government. In the NES2017, electricity production from RES reaches a share, in 2030, equal to 55% of the gross domestic consumption of electricity (GDC-E). In this paper we present the impact assessment of the achievement of such target on the development and on the operation of the power system. The analysis started from an energy scenario developed with the long term energy model TIMES-Italia. Then, using sMTSIM, a simulation model of the Italian power system, the main criticalities (congestion, overgeneration, energy not supplied, etc.) have been identified and quantified. The technical and regulatory measures to mitigate the impact of such critical issues, have been evaluated on the basis of a cost/benefit analysis. Finally, the amount of investments needed and the impact on electricity cost have been estimated.