Decarbonised pathways for a low carbon EU28 power sector until 2050

Abstract

The linear optimization bottom-up technology model JRC-EU-TIMES is used to assess how different decarbonisation pathways affect the power sector's technological deployment till 2050. The model represents the EU28 energy system from 2005 to 2050, where each country is one region. We model eight scenarios, two of which are the "reference" complemented by six decarbonized pathways. The two "reference" scenarios are the Current Policy Initiatives scenario, including the 20-20-20 policy targets, and the Cap85 scenario with a CO2 reduction of 85% below 1990 values in 2050. The six decarbonized pathways are built over Cap85 as follows: smaller contribution of CCS; higher social acceptance and facilitated permitting of RES plants; higher social acceptance of nuclear plants; stricter and more effective end-use energy efficiency requirements; lower biomass availability for the energy system; and higher concerns with ensuring the reliability of transmission and distribution, reducing the share of intermittent variable solar and wind electricity.