Multi-Market Price Forecasting in Hydro-Thermal Power Systems

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for price forecasting in hydro-thermal power systems. The framework consists of a long-term strategic and a short-term operational model. The strategic model provides the end-of-horizon valuation of water in hydro storages as input to the operational model. We emphasize on the operational model, and discuss work in progress to facilitate more detailed fundamental market modeling to enable realistic multi-market price forecasting. A case study of the Nordic power system demonstrates the use of the framework, quantifying the impact of constraints on cable ramping and reserve capacity on prices.