Does the National Hockey League (NHL) have a case of the “Vegas Flu”? - A statistical examination of the Vegas Golden Knights’ inaugural 2017-18 season

Abstract

Following the Vegas Golden Knights’ inaugural 2017-18 season in the National Hockey League (NHL), numerous media outlets warranted the team’s success to a prevailing home ice advantage due to the team’s location in Las Vegas. Given that the city of Las Vegas is synonymous with its casinos and night life, the colloquial phenomenon termed the “Vegas Flu” has been used by the media to headline the Golden Knights’ success. This paper offers a statistical analysis that examines the efficacy of this notion. Specifically, the current study utilizes a binary logistic regression model to predict game outcomes (i.e., wins and losses) and quantifies the “Vegas Flu” phenomenon through the number of visits made by an opposing team. Controlling for a series of variables (e.g., opposing team quality, point in season, game duration, attendance, opposing team location, and opposing time zone), findings from the logistic regression analysis using Firth’s penalized-likelihood correction did not support any significant effect of the “Vegas Flu.” Ultimately, limitations and routes for further research are presented. Subject Classification: (2010) 62-07, 62J02, 62P25, 90B90.