Computing System Congestion Management Using Exponential Smoothing Forecasting

Abstract

An overloaded computer must finish what it starts and not start what will fail or hang. A congestion management algorithm, the author developed, effectively manages traffic overload with its unique formulation of Exponential Smoothing forecasting. This set of equations resolve forecasting startup issues that have limited the model's adoption as a discrete time series predictor. These expressions also satisfy implementation requirements to perform calculations using integer math and be able to reset the forecast seamlessly. A computer program, written in C language, which exercises the methodology, is downloadable from GitHub.