Non-Islamist parties in post-2011 Egypt: winners in an MB-free political sphere

IF 2.2
Ebtisam Hussein
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Abstract

Purpose Years after the 2011 uprising Egypt, it seems that the country’s non-Islamist parties are still included in the political game. After significant alterations in their political sphere by mid-2013 at the advent of the Muslim Brother exclusion and the subsequent discrediting of Salafi al-Nour party, non-Islamist parties took clear part in the mobilization for presidential elections (2014, 2018) and competed for legislative seats in 2015. Nonetheless, it is difficult to expect them to turn into long-term key political players with clear-cut ideological postures, unique platforms and strong grass root mobilization. With the exception of the electoral gains scored by numbered parties like Free Egyptians’ party and Nation’s Future in 2015 legislative elections, these parties seem to be lagging behind esp. in terms of their popular base; who became winners at the advent of the radical exclusion of the MB from July 2013 onwards. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on archival research and guided by basic assumptions of rational choice institutionalism, mainly game-theoretic versions of the approach. It is divided into four sections, three of them are chronological and the last one is thematic. Findings Egypt’s non-Islamists engaged in the post-2011 political sphere, with strong Islamist rivals crippling their political chances in the first two years following the 2011 uprising. They surely capitalized on the exclusion and discrediting of the latter, but they suffered lack of ideological clarity and fragmentation from 2011 onwards with no enough evidence these weaknesses were surpassed after Islamists were “out of their way”. The only strand of non-Islamist parties which came out as “game winners” were those possessing the resources and enjoying overt “friendly” relations with al-Sisi regime. Nonetheless, internal conflicts inside key secularist parties shed light on their capacity to turn into long-term players in Egypt’s political sphere. Originality/value Very few papers were published on Egypt’s secularists parties after the 2011 uprising from the perspective of the alteration that occurred in their political environment affecting their political weight and gains. More generally, literature on non-ruling parties in authoritarian contexts mostly reduce these parties to secondary roles allocated by ruling regimes. The paper seeks to overcome both shortages.
2011年后埃及的非伊斯兰政党:无mb政治领域的赢家
在2011年埃及起义多年后,该国的非伊斯兰政党似乎仍被纳入政治游戏。2013年年中,由于穆斯林兄弟会被排除在外,非伊斯兰政党的政治领域发生了重大变化,随后萨拉菲光明党(Salafi al-Nour party)名誉扫地,非伊斯兰政党明确参与了总统选举的动员(2014年和2018年),并在2015年争夺立法席位。然而,很难指望他们成为具有鲜明的思想立场、独特的平台和强大的基层动员能力的长期政治核心人物。除了自由埃及党(Free egyptian’s party)和民族未来党(Nation’s Future)在2015年的立法选举中获得的胜利外,这些政党似乎都落后了,尤其是在民众基础方面;从2013年7月起,穆斯林兄弟会被彻底排除在外,他们成为了赢家。设计/方法论/方法本文基于文献研究,并以理性选择制度主义的基本假设为指导,主要是该方法的博弈论版本。它分为四个部分,其中三个是时间顺序,最后一个是主题。埃及的非伊斯兰主义者参与了2011年后的政治领域,在2011年起义后的头两年,强大的伊斯兰对手削弱了他们的政治机会。他们当然利用了对后者的排斥和诋毁,但自2011年以来,他们的意识形态缺乏清晰和分裂,没有足够的证据表明,在伊斯兰主义者“离开他们的道路”之后,这些弱点被超越了。唯一成为“游戏赢家”的非伊斯兰政党是那些拥有资源、与塞西政权有着公开“友好”关系的政党。尽管如此,主要世俗主义政党的内部冲突表明,他们有能力成为埃及政治领域的长期参与者。在2011年起义后,每几篇关于埃及世俗主义政党的论文都是从政治环境变化影响其政治影响力和收益的角度发表的。更一般地说,关于威权背景下非执政党的文献大多将这些政党贬低为执政政权分配的次要角色。本文试图克服这两方面的不足。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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