Dependence Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant Operators Based on HRA

Jie Xu, Jianzhang Zhou, Deyi Liu, Jian Wu, Zilong Wang, Mingsha Zhao, Yang Luo, Honghao Chen
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Abstract

As an important part of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), human reliability analysis (HRA) provides human error probabilities for assessing the risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Human reliability analysis (HRA) uses a systematic method to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the mechanism and probability of human error in order to assess the human contribution to the risks of NPPs. Dependence anslysis is an important part of HRA. Without dependency analysis, the result of human error probabilities may be over optimistic, which will lead to the underestimation of the safety risk level of the NPPs. Based on the feedback of human factor dependence from the experts review of level 1 PSA in NPPs. This paper summarized the technical insights of HRA dependence analysis, and used two dependence analysis methods to re-analyze the human factor dependence in the PSA model of nuclear power plant. In this paper, starting from the problem of human dependence raised by experts in the peer assessment of first-level PSA in power operation, some technical insights on human dependence were summarized in the analysis and discussion of the existing HRA dependence method. Meanwhile, the human dependence of power PSA was analyzed again by SPAR-H method and NUREG-1921 dependence method.
基于HRA的核电站运营商相关性分析
人为可靠性分析(HRA)是概率安全评估(PSA)的重要组成部分,为核电厂风险评估提供人为错误概率。人为可靠性分析(HRA)是一种系统的方法,通过定性和定量地评估人为错误的机制和概率,以评估人类对核电站风险的贡献。相关性分析是人力资源评估的重要组成部分。如果不进行相关性分析,人为错误概率的计算结果可能会过于乐观,从而导致对核电站安全风险水平的低估。基于核电站一级PSA专家评审的人为因素依赖反馈。本文总结了HRA依赖性分析的技术见解,并运用两种依赖性分析方法对核电厂PSA模型中的人因依赖性进行了重新分析。本文从专家在电力运行一级PSA同行评估中提出的人的依赖问题出发,通过对现有HRA依赖方法的分析和讨论,总结出一些关于人的依赖的技术见解。同时用SPAR-H法和nuregg -1921依赖性法再次分析了人对功率PSA的依赖性。
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