Lightning forecasting using WRF model over EDP distribution companies areas

Abstract

The lightning forecasting method called Potential Lightning Region (PLR) is a tool that provides the probability of the occurrence of lightning over a region of interest. The definition of the PLR was based on a combination of meteorological variables obtained from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations during the summer season in southeastern Brazil. The model parameters used in the PLR calculation were: most unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (mCAPE), K-Index (KI), Total Totals Index (ITT), 700-500 hPa lapse rate of equivalent potential temperature, vertical velocity averaged between 850 hPa and 700 hPa, and ice-mixing ratio integrated from 700 hPa to 500 hPa. Since 2010, a partnership between the Group EDP-Brasil and the Atmospheric Electricity Group (ELAT) of National Institute for Space Research (INPE) is supporting the ClimaGrid Project that aims for developing a new computational system that integrates a wide range of meteorological and environmental variables to the electrical system information, in order to manage the growing impact of climate changes on power systems engineering, and to minimize its effects as well. The PLR has been operational for the first time in the ClimaGrid Project, and, in this study, we present some preliminary results of the PLR campaign during the 2012/2013 summer over EDP distribution companies areas. The thunderstorm case studies discussed here show that PLR works satisfactorily, being a useful tool to help EDP in the maintenance of the power systems.