The Effect Of Expert Evaluations On The Efficiency Of Decision Processes In Power Distribution Systems

Abstract

The paper gives the results of tests carr ied out f o r utility operational s t a f f (experts) t o estimate the form and parameters of a probability density function of e r r o r s (which are committed by experts) in evaluation of peak loads at receiving buses. Special computer simulation studies were designed and executed t o analyze the effects of load estimation e r ro r s on the results of power distribution systems performance calculations. From t h e resul ts of simulation tes ts , probabilistic models of calculational e r ro r s made on t h e distribution systems were formulated.