Application of statistical hypotheses test method for evaluation of investment investment options in the production field

Abstract

The use of foreign and domestic financial and material resources is one of the components of the modern concept of economic and social development. The efficient use of these resources is known to be hampered not only by the traditional discrepancy between the amount of resources available and required, but also by the inefficient management of their use. This management is aimed at solving problems: organization of work; control over the targeted use of funds; reasonable allocation of resources; resource investment planning; scientifically sound forecasting of the implementation of decisions made at the planning stage. The article is devoted to solving the last of these problems. In this paper, using the principle of compromise and the minimax method, we propose a variant of applying the method of testing statistical hypotheses to assess the implementation of investment options in the field of production for more informed decision-making at the planning stage of enterprise development in uncertainty. The task of modeling is to determine and estimate the probabilities of implementation of planned investments aimed at promoting the strategic development of the enterprise in case of intersection of hypotheses about the actual distribution of public and private sources of investment in conditions of random and antagonistic uncertainty. It is investigated that to assess the feasibility of investment options available to economic development management bodies, as well as in the relevant statistical offices, available information on the planned distribution of existing or expected investment, i.e. statistical information on characteristics, is the information basis for solving this. task. The probability of forecasting the implementation of each of the observed options is estimated by calculating the probability of making the right decisions and decision-making errors when considering the distribution of investments that are planned for each option of their use. The results of the method contribute to the improvement of management of investments in the sphere of production in difficult real conditions. Keywords: distribution of investment volumes, method of testing of statistical hypotheses, stochastic model of forecasting of phenomena, reliability of realization of planned volumes of investments, compromise determination.