Determinants of food security in the GCC: a cointegration approach with an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of the food import bill for the GCC during the period 1980–2019 using a co-integration approach of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The study ascertains that the food market in the GCC is highly dependent on imports, which makes it vulnerable to any import disruption. The model confirms that there is a longterm relationship between the food import bill and its dynamics, with an adjustment rate of 37%, indicating that 37% of the deviations from the long-run path are corrected annually.