Forecasting loads and prices for New England market

Abstract

Summary form only given, as follows. Generators, utilities, energy traders and large energy users all share a common need for accurate forecasts of load and price at the major energy markets, in order to maximize profits and minimize risk due to price spikes. Examples of impact of price spikes at ISO-NE are given. This paper provides an overview of current forecasting technologies; techniques for selecting forecast variables; locations of public and private weather sources; and definitions and measurements of average forecast accuracy, directional forecast accuracy, and price spikes. Forecasting results are provided for ISO-NE load and energy clearing price, as well as the New England bilateral market price. Seasonal variations in forecasts are also discussed.