Network television scheduling simulator model

Abstract

Every year in the early spring the 3 television networks announce their fall prime time schedules for the coming year. Pilot previews are shown to the major advertising agencies. The agents estimate the share of the viewing audience that each program will command. It is from these estimated "shares" that negotiations for the sale of advertising time are launched between the agents and the network representatives. The relative worth of a schedule depends upon its interaction with the schedules of the other two networks. Millions of dollars stand to be gained or lost depending upon the success or failure of the proposed schedule. Because the schedules are formulated independently, without knowledge of the other networks' future schedules, the network executives who devise the schedules must take thousands of interacting factors into account when they place even one program into a particular time slot. The human mind has so far been the only analytic tool employed to any extent. The mind is capable of some remarkable decisions as evidenced by the notable past success of certain individual network program planners. That this success is transitory is demonstrated by the constantly changing titles (and company affiliation) of the network executives. What is needed, for the sake of the network and for the sake of the network executives, is a computer program that can be used as a tool to consistently determine the most profitable schedule possible. I propose to build a model simulating the battle between the three networks over prime time network viewing audience. This model will arrange a given number of possible television shows into the schedule which maximizes profit for a given network.