Study of the Linear Equation Heeling Angle Prediction by using Simulation Data

Abstract

As ships become bigger, faster, and diverse, the use of marine transportation increased the transportation. However, the number of ship accidents also increased. Ship accidents cause loss of life and property as well as environmental disasters. The occurrence of ship accidents causes enormous economic and environmental impacts. Especially, in case of passenger ships, methods for preventing ship accidents are being discussed to prevent losing numerous human lives. The purpose of this study is to provide basic data for evacuation before reaching the dangerous time by predicting the time to reach the risk of capsize based on the heeling angle of the passenger ship. Based on the sinking accident between 2012 and 2016, we set up specific scenarios and simulated the real-life data using commercial software MOSES V20. The simulation result is the heeling angle over time. We compared it with the simulation results using the linear equation. As a result of the comparison, a huge error was observed in the short time interval. Predicting the time of the equation reaching the hazardous angle was estimated in a similar fashion. It is expected that it will be possible to provide basic data for evacuation of human and ship by using nonlinear equations and improving the forecast’s accuracy.