Rice Price Prediction in Malaysia

Abstract

Rice is a staple food in Malaysia. There are three leading crops consumed by humans which include rice, wheat, and maize. Among these three crops, rice is by far the most important for people in low and low-middle-income countries. Thus, rice has a pivotal role as a source of nutrition for most Malaysians and a principal source of income for farmers. In this study, a data set of monthly rice prices in Malaysia from January 2013 to December 2021 is used from IndexMundi. A total of108 observations were examined by using the Box-Jenkins method which is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This study found that the ARIMA(2,1,1) is the best model using the data based on Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) value. This research aimed to identify the behavior, the best fit model, and forecast the future value of rice prices in Malaysia.