Investigation of cavitator failure statistics at fuel oil facilities of thermal power plants by using regression and cluster analysis

Abstract

One of the main tasks in the management of technological processes is to reduce emergencies and failures of existing equipment. The statistical data obtained during the operation of machines and mechanisms require appropriate mathematical processing to analyze the dynamics of technological processes and establish relationships between deviations, influencing factors and failures. Regression and cluster analyses are convenient tools for processing these data. The failures of cavitation systems are an essential, and at the same time poorly illuminated topic in scientific periodicals. Cavitators are relatively common technical devices that allow maintaining the technological parameters of fuel oil in tank farms at the required level (viscosity, water content, adhesive properties). The practice of using cavitators on fuel oil farms of thermal power plants in the Kaliningrad region shows that these technical devices can fail relatively often.   So, in case of disconnection or restriction of the supply of the required volumes of gas to the thermal power plant, reserves of fuel oil from the fuel park can be used. In turn, the failure of the cavitation system may lead to the impossibility of entering reserve fuel and, as a consequence, to the shutdown of power generation. Thus, the problem of ensuring energy security and the reliability of cavitation systems are closely interrelated. In this study, an array of accumulated statistical information on the parameters of the functioning of cavitators in fuel oil farms and the moments of failure is analyzed. Regression and cluster analyses were used to process the data array, which made it possible to determine the relationship between the types of failures and the influencing factors and to rank the weight of factors according to the degree of their impact on cavitation equipment. Based on the results of mathematical processing and data analysis, proposals have been developed to ensure greater technical reliability of cavitators, reorganize their maintenance system and reduce the number of failures.