Predicting Competitive Response to P&G's Value Pricing Move: Combining Normative and Empirical Analyses

Kusum L. Ailawadi, P. Kopalle, S. Neslin
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This research uses P&G's value pricing initiative as a context for testing the ability of a normative economic model to predict competitor and retailer response. We first estimate the response parameters of a demand function for each brand from the period before value pricing was initiated. We then formulate a dynamic Manufacturer-Stackelberg game theoretic model that includes P&G, a national brand competitor, and a retailer. The model takes P&G's move as given and prescribes the actions that competitors and the retailer should take with respect to price and promotion. We test the predictive power of the normative model by substituting the estimated response parameters into the model to obtain prescriptions for each competitor and the retailer, and then seeing whether these prescriptions are related to the actual moves taken by competitors and the retailer. We find that our economic model, coupled with empirical estimates of its response parameters, has significant predictive power. It is more accurate for competitive response than for retailer response, but the predictive power is statistically significant in both cases. Covariates such as category advertising, category purchase cycle, and multi-market contact also predict competitive response, but our economic model-based prescription is the most important predictor. Overall, the results suggest that competitor and retailer response to a significant policy change by a major "player" is predictable and at least partially rational in its dependence on response parameters processed through a dynamic game theoretic model.
预测宝洁价值定价举措的竞争反应:结合规范和实证分析
本研究以宝洁公司的价值定价计划为背景,测试一个规范的经济模型预测竞争对手和零售商反应的能力。我们首先从价值定价开始之前的时期估计每个品牌的需求函数的响应参数。然后,我们制定了一个动态的制造商- stackelberg博弈论模型,其中包括宝洁,一个全国性的品牌竞争对手,和一个零售商。该模型将宝洁的举动视为既定的,并规定了竞争对手和零售商在价格和促销方面应该采取的行动。我们通过将估计的响应参数代入模型,得到每个竞争对手和零售商的处方,然后看看这些处方是否与竞争对手和零售商的实际行动有关,来检验规范模型的预测能力。我们发现我们的经济模型,加上对其响应参数的经验估计,具有显著的预测能力。竞争反应比零售商反应更准确,但预测能力在两种情况下都具有统计学意义。类目广告、类目购买周期和多市场联系等协变量也能预测竞争反应,但我们基于经济模型的处方是最重要的预测因素。总体而言,研究结果表明,竞争对手和零售商对主要“参与者”的重大政策变化的反应是可预测的,并且至少部分地依赖于通过动态博弈论模型处理的响应参数。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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