SoS in disasters: Why following the manual can be a mistake

A. Cavallo, V. Ireland
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

According to both the US Geological Survey and the World Bank, $280 billion dollars could have been saved if $40 billion dollars had been invested in disaster prevention. Natural and human-made disasters that have occurred over the last few years show that there is a gap in disaster prevention caused by the interconnected nature of risks, which cannot be foreseen with current risk management methods. In this paper we point out how disaster management could benefit from a SoS approach in emergency response and preparedness strategies. Using recent disasters as case studies, we identify some keys to success in managing a SoS in preparation, during and in the aftermath of a disaster. In particular, we discuss the idea of the interconnectedness of risks in independent and interdependent systems and the application of Boardman and Sauser's concept of “creative disobedience”, which are fundamental for goal achievement of systems belonging to a SoS.
灾难中的SoS:为什么遵循手册可能是一个错误
根据美国地质调查局和世界银行的数据,如果在防灾方面投资400亿美元,就可以节省2800亿美元。过去几年发生的自然灾害和人为灾害表明,由于风险相互关联的性质,在预防灾害方面存在差距,这是目前风险管理方法无法预见的。在本文中,我们指出灾害管理如何从应急响应和准备战略中的SoS方法中受益。以最近的灾难为案例研究,我们确定了在灾难准备、灾难期间和灾后成功管理SoS的一些关键因素。特别地,我们讨论了独立和相互依赖系统中风险相互联系的思想,以及Boardman和Sauser的“创造性不服从”概念的应用,这是属于SoS的系统实现目标的基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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