Forecasting Agricultural Land in West Denpasar Using the Semi Averages Methods Applied in GIS

Abstract

Agriculture is the main livelihood done in the days of ancestors in Indonesia. Agricultural land from 2014-2019 in West Denpasar Subdistrict experienced a significant decline because it was influenced by several things such as the conversion of agricultural land to settlements due to overcrowding or population movement from villages to cities. Another factor is that livelihoods as farmers do not promise to generate income as they wish so the community uses their land to build other businesses. Based on these problems, a study was conducted to predict land area from 2020-2025 using data on agricultural land area in the District of West Denpasar from 2014-2019. Forecasting methods used are semi-average trend statistical methods. The results of the forecasting will be implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) using ArcView software. This research can be used as a decision maker by the government to anticipate the area of agricultural land in accordance with forecasting results that experienced a decline from 2020-2025 to maintain the balance of natural ecosystems for the survival of the next generation of the nation.