Trajectory of Corona Epidemic in India: An Initial Phase Predictive Mathematical Model and the Present Status

N. Soni
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Abstract

The novel Coronavirus and its subsequent mutations have been a cause of concern across the world as the human-to-human infection is spreading at a fast pace. Scientists across the world from different disciplines are working to understand the biology, the diseases cycle, epidemiology, and various other attributes of the virus. Mathematicians and statisticians along with computational scientists have come with predictive models that are regional, or state specific. In this paper, we trace a trajectory of the pandemic course in India starting from the initial phase till now, presenting a predictive mathematical model that captured the fate of the virus in the initial phase (till April 2020), indicative data, future projections, and the present status (May 2021) in India. The model predicted that the number of infected people shall increase in India unless physical distancing was implemented in the real sense. The Indian Government with inputs from eminent scientists, laboratory technicians, health care workers, and many excellent predictive models, has done well in containing the pandemic in the first phase. However, owing to the varied environmental conditions prevalent in different areas and mutations in the virus itself, a surge in the number of COVID cases is seen. The model presented in this paper is important as it can provide leads to the health care specialists to prepare the necessary health care facilities and help the rural areas to boost their preparedness to fight the pandemic.
印度冠状病毒流行轨迹:初始阶段预测数学模型及现状
随着人与人之间的感染迅速传播,新型冠状病毒及其随后的突变引起了全世界的关注。来自世界各地不同学科的科学家正在努力了解该病毒的生物学、疾病周期、流行病学和各种其他属性。数学家、统计学家和计算科学家提出了区域性或特定于州的预测模型。在本文中,我们追踪了印度从初始阶段到现在的大流行过程的轨迹,提出了一个预测数学模型,该模型捕捉了病毒在初始阶段(到2020年4月)的命运、指示性数据、未来预测和印度的现状(2021年5月)。该模型预测,除非真正实施物理距离,否则印度的感染人数将会增加。印度政府在著名科学家、实验室技术人员、保健工作者和许多优秀的预测模型的投入下,在第一阶段很好地控制了这一流行病。然而,由于不同地区普遍存在的不同环境条件以及病毒本身的突变,新冠肺炎病例数量激增。本文提出的模型很重要,因为它可以为卫生保健专家提供指导,使其准备必要的卫生保健设施,并帮助农村地区加强防范,以抗击这一流行病。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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