Trajectory of Corona Epidemic in India: An Initial Phase Predictive Mathematical Model and the Present Status

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus and its subsequent mutations have been a cause of concern across the world as the human-to-human infection is spreading at a fast pace. Scientists across the world from different disciplines are working to understand the biology, the diseases cycle, epidemiology, and various other attributes of the virus. Mathematicians and statisticians along with computational scientists have come with predictive models that are regional, or state specific. In this paper, we trace a trajectory of the pandemic course in India starting from the initial phase till now, presenting a predictive mathematical model that captured the fate of the virus in the initial phase (till April 2020), indicative data, future projections, and the present status (May 2021) in India. The model predicted that the number of infected people shall increase in India unless physical distancing was implemented in the real sense. The Indian Government with inputs from eminent scientists, laboratory technicians, health care workers, and many excellent predictive models, has done well in containing the pandemic in the first phase. However, owing to the varied environmental conditions prevalent in different areas and mutations in the virus itself, a surge in the number of COVID cases is seen. The model presented in this paper is important as it can provide leads to the health care specialists to prepare the necessary health care facilities and help the rural areas to boost their preparedness to fight the pandemic.