Is This Cost Estimate Reliable? -- The Relationship between Homogeneity of Analogues and Estimation Reliability

First International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM 2007) Pub Date : 2007-09-20 DOI:10.1109/ESEM.2007.31

Naoki Ohsugi, Akito Monden, Nahomi Kikuchi, Mike Barker, Masateru Tsunoda, Takeshi Kakimoto, Ken-ichi Matsumoto

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引用次数: 10

Abstract

Analogy-based cost estimation provides a useful and intuitive means to support decision making in software project management. It derives a cost estimate required for completing a project from information about similar past projects, namely the analogues. While on average this method provides a relatively accurate cost estimate there remains a possibility of large estimation errors. In this paper, we empirically tested the hypothesis that "using more homogeneous analogues produces a more reliable cost estimate" using a software engineering data repository established by the software engineering center (SEC), Information-technology Promotion Agency, Japan. This testing showed that low and high homogeneity projects had a large variation in estimation reliability. For instance, the difference was 22.9% (p = 0.021) in terms of percentage to get accurate estimates (better than Median of Magnitude of Relative Error).

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这个成本估算可靠吗?——类似物的同质性与估计可靠性之间的关系

基于类比的成本估算为软件项目管理中的决策提供了一种有用且直观的方法。它从过去类似项目(即类似项目)的信息中得出完成项目所需的成本估算。虽然平均而言，这种方法提供了相对准确的成本估算，但仍有可能出现较大的估算误差。在本文中，我们使用由日本信息技术促进机构软件工程中心(SEC)建立的软件工程数据存储库，对“使用更均匀的类似物产生更可靠的成本估算”这一假设进行了实证检验。这个测试表明，低同质性和高同质性的项目在估计可靠性上有很大的差异。例如，就获得准确估计的百分比而言，差异为22.9% (p = 0.021)(优于相对误差幅度的中位数)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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First International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering and Measurement (ESEM 2007)

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