Health Risk Assessment Model of Drinking Water Sources Based on Combination of Bayesian and Triangle Fuzzy Number

Abstract

Health risk assessment of water sources simulates the relationship between water quality and human health quantitatively. In this paper, fuzzy-Bayesian water environment health risk assessment model was developed based on fuzzy theory and Bayesian approach. The model proposed was applied to simulate two surface water sources in a certain city to assess the water environment health risk. The results indicated that the Cr (VI) was the biggest factor influencing the individual annual health risk. Compared with Cr (VI), the effect of As was relatively smaller. The effects of non-carcinogenic chemical toxicants on annual health risk level could be ignored which were so minor compared with Cr and As. In addition, the health risk levels of two water sources were of level VI and level VI, respectively.