Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis for Embankment Dams

Abstract

Slope instability is one of the most common forms of dam failure. The commonly used slope stability analysis methods ignore the uncertainty and randomness of dam materials, which may overestimate the stability of dams. In this chapter, a deterministic slope stability analysis based on strength reduction finite-element method is introduced first. After that, the slope is investigated using simple probabilistic concepts and classical slope stability techniques, and the shear strength is treated as a single random variable. Further, the random finite-element method (RFEM) is shown, in which spatial correlation and local averaging are illustrated in detail. Finally, the RFEM is applied to slope stability risk assessment, and the results can lead to higher probabilities of failure.