Attribution analysis on the changing trend of sesame yield data in southern Henan under climate change

Abstract

Analyzing the characteristics of climate change and clarifying the critical climate factors affecting sesame yield are significant for sesame production to cope with future climate change and ensure stable yield and income increase. In this study, trend analysis and mutation analysis were used to study the changing trends of climatic factors, yield per unit area, and climatic yield. The data included meteorological and sesame yield data in Zhumadian City of Henan Province from 1989 to 2018. The stepwise regression model was used to extract critical climate factors, and multiple regression models of sesame climate yield and critical climate factors were established. The contribution rates to sesame yield of the critical climate factors affecting sesame yield were determined. The results showed as follows: from 1989 to 2018, the temperature during the sesame growing period in Henan Province showed an increasing trend, and the minimum temperature showed the most apparent increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 0.03℃. The decreasing trend of precipitation and sunshine duration in the sesame growing period was insignificant, but the inter-annual fluctuation was significant. The coefficient of variation was 40.8% and 15.41%, respectively. The yield per unit area of sesame showed a significant increasing trend, and the annual growth rate was 34.08kg·hm-2. The rising trend of climate yield is not adequate. The critical climate factors affecting sesame climatic yield were sunshine duration and average temperature. The contribution rate of each climate factor to climate yield in each growth period was ranked from the largest to the smallest as the average temperature at the seedling stage, the sunshine duration at the maturity stage, and the sunshine duration at the emergence stage. We have developed a future climate change adaptation strategy for the region based on the findings. The following measures should be taken to produce high-yield and high-quality sesame in south Henan Province. Local production departments should conduct training on high-yield cultivation techniques such as early sowing of sesame and risk management of waterlogging. Research institutions accelerated the selection, demonstration, and promotion of improved sesame seeds. The government has issued preferential agricultural policies.