The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global grain market and food security: Short- and long-term effects

Abstract

Since the 24th February 2022, Russia has been conducting extensive air and missile strikes against the Ukraine military they have also been conducting concurrent ground offensives beyond Crimea and the Donbas breakaway entities. Recent reports highlighted that Russia has continually advanced in different maneuver axes and at present, no one can predict when and how the Ukraine conflict will end. For over three months, the conflict has greatly influenced the global economy and sounded the alarm bells for global food safety, especially to those countries which greatly depend on food and chemical fertilizer import from Russia and Ukraine, as well as those countries sensitive to food price variation shock. According to the '2021 GLOBAL REPORT ON FOOD CRISES (GRFC 2022)' by the World Food Program (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), due to regional conflicts, economic downturn and Covid-19 about 1.93 billion people in 53 countries and regions are facing a food crisis, which is the highest number since 2016, and since 2000 the number has increased by 0.4 billion. Since both Russia and the Ukraine are important countries for grain export, the RussiaUkraine conflict, the reduced agricultural output (particularly grains and oilseeds), and economic sanctions against Russia, have further enhanced the global food crisis. Notably, we are facing great challenges in global food safety. Here, we try to emphasize the influences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food safety in terms of its shortand long-term effects based on our current understooding to date.