Fault State Prediction Model of Repaired Equipment Considering Maintenance Effect

Abstract

The level and speed of performance degradation after maintenance will be affected by the maintenance effect. Aiming at the degradation process of repairable equipment, a fault state prediction model considering maintenance effect was established to obtain the state transfer process of repaired equipment within $n$ detection cycles. Firstly, according to the maintenance effect of the equipment, the regression model of degradation degree and the regression rate model are proposed. Secondly, considering the unobservability of equipment performance degradation state, based on hidden Markov model, and on the basis of state division of equipment degradation quantity, the required state space and observation space of the model are constructed, and finally the fault state prediction model considering maintenance effect is established. The case takes the temperature state of the repaired circuit breaker as the observable variable of the HMM model. The calculated results of the model are closer to the real situation, which shows the feasibility of the model and can be applied in the field of maintenance optimization.