Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Osun State Nigeria Using Skellam Garch(1,1) Models

Abstract

The manifestation of urban crime and other social vices causing anti-moral, anti-social behaviours as well as criminal damage to both public and private properties in Nigeria with the consequential effect of spontaneous and uncontrollable urban growth, high-level poverty rate, distortion of city peace and tranquillity has become an issue of national discourse. The paper employed ARCH and Skellam GARCH models to forecast the likely crime rate trend within the next five years. The Skellam-GARCH model performs better as a crime forecasting model than the ARCH model.