Amid Rakhman, Y. Cahyana, Rahmat, Tukino, Syahroni Wahyu Iriananda
{"title":"Prediction Model for Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Linear Regression and Polynomial Regression Methods","authors":"Amid Rakhman, Y. Cahyana, Rahmat, Tukino, Syahroni Wahyu Iriananda","doi":"10.59805/ecsit.v1i1.4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) a pandemic. Covid-19 is a disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which affects the respiratory system. Until now, positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still occurring every day. This study aims to predict the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. The data is sourced from the public API page covid19.go.id in the form of an additional number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by 122 lines of data. Predictions are made using linear regression and polynomial regression methods as comparisons. Evaluation of the linear regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.57, while the polynomial regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.84. Based on these evaluations, the polynomial regression method yields better results than the linear regression method. The prediction of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia from January to March 2022 using the polynomial regression methods predicts that the addition of Covid-19 cases will rise again.","PeriodicalId":202727,"journal":{"name":"Edutran Computer Science and Information Technology","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Edutran Computer Science and Information Technology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.59805/ecsit.v1i1.4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) a pandemic. Covid-19 is a disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which affects the respiratory system. Until now, positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still occurring every day. This study aims to predict the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. The data is sourced from the public API page covid19.go.id in the form of an additional number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by 122 lines of data. Predictions are made using linear regression and polynomial regression methods as comparisons. Evaluation of the linear regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.57, while the polynomial regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.84. Based on these evaluations, the polynomial regression method yields better results than the linear regression method. The prediction of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia from January to March 2022 using the polynomial regression methods predicts that the addition of Covid-19 cases will rise again.