Prediction Model for Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Linear Regression and Polynomial Regression Methods

Amid Rakhman, Y. Cahyana, Rahmat, Tukino, Syahroni Wahyu Iriananda
{"title":"Prediction Model for Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Linear Regression and Polynomial Regression Methods","authors":"Amid Rakhman, Y. Cahyana, Rahmat, Tukino, Syahroni Wahyu Iriananda","doi":"10.59805/ecsit.v1i1.4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) a pandemic. Covid-19 is a disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which affects the respiratory system. Until now, positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still occurring every day. This study aims to predict the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. The data is sourced from the public API page covid19.go.id in the form of an additional number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by 122 lines of data. Predictions are made using linear regression and polynomial regression methods as comparisons. Evaluation of the linear regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.57, while the polynomial regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.84. Based on these evaluations, the polynomial regression method yields better results than the linear regression method. The prediction of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia from January to March 2022 using the polynomial regression methods predicts that the addition of Covid-19 cases will rise again.","PeriodicalId":202727,"journal":{"name":"Edutran Computer Science and Information Technology","volume":"145 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Edutran Computer Science and Information Technology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.59805/ecsit.v1i1.4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

The World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) a pandemic. Covid-19 is a disease caused by a new type of coronavirus, namely Sars-CoV-2, which affects the respiratory system. Until now, positive confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia are still occurring every day. This study aims to predict the addition of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia. The data is sourced from the public API page covid19.go.id in the form of an additional number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by 122 lines of data. Predictions are made using linear regression and polynomial regression methods as comparisons. Evaluation of the linear regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.57, while the polynomial regression method obtains a value of R2 = 0.84. Based on these evaluations, the polynomial regression method yields better results than the linear regression method. The prediction of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia from January to March 2022 using the polynomial regression methods predicts that the addition of Covid-19 cases will rise again.
基于线性回归和多项式回归方法的印度尼西亚Covid-19病例预测模型
2020年3月11日,世界卫生组织宣布2019冠状病毒病(Covid-19)为大流行。Covid-19是一种由新型冠状病毒即Sars-CoV-2引起的疾病,会影响呼吸系统。到目前为止,印度尼西亚每天都有Covid-19阳性确诊病例。这项研究旨在预测印度尼西亚新增的Covid-19病例。数据来源于公共API页面covid . 19.go。在印度尼西亚新增的新冠肺炎病例数增加了122行数据。预测使用线性回归和多项式回归方法作为比较。线性回归方法的评价值R2 = 0.57,而多项式回归方法的评价值R2 = 0.84。基于这些评价,多项式回归方法比线性回归方法效果更好。利用多项式回归方法预测2022年1 - 3月印度尼西亚新冠肺炎病例数,预测新增病例数将再次上升。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信