Risk Management Models in Operative Planning at an Industrial Enterprise

Abstract

The subject of the study was the situation of operational planning of production of an industrial company in the face of random fluctuations in the current demand for its products. It is shown that in this situation there are loss risks that depend on the decisions made during operational planning. A model of the planning situation is developed for the case when the volume of orders for products for one period of time is described by a random variable with stationary statistical characteristics. The effectiveness of decisions made was estimated by the average economic effect per unit of time over an infinite time interval. The planning situation model was used to conduct a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of various operational planning policies.