{"title":"International Production Networks and the Propagation of Financial Shocks","authors":"Sihao Chen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3815081","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector two-country model with asymmetric country size, I show analytically that a financial shock to the large country's production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting the small country's output and GDP. Quantitatively, using simulation exercises and structural factor analyses, I show that U.S. sector-level financial shocks account for a significant fraction of the fluctuations in Mexico's GDP around the global financial crisis. International production networks amplify the real effect of external financial shocks by a factor greater than ten during the crisis.","PeriodicalId":448175,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Comparative Political Economy: Comparative Capitalism eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3815081","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector two-country model with asymmetric country size, I show analytically that a financial shock to the large country's production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting the small country's output and GDP. Quantitatively, using simulation exercises and structural factor analyses, I show that U.S. sector-level financial shocks account for a significant fraction of the fluctuations in Mexico's GDP around the global financial crisis. International production networks amplify the real effect of external financial shocks by a factor greater than ten during the crisis.