2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026

Abstract

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2016-2026 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions that general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes remain at the long-run conditions. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain constant over the next ten years. World sugar prices increased from 18.7 cents/lb in 2009 to 27.0 cents/lb in 2010 and 32.0 cents/lb in 2011 before falling to 16.8 cents/lb in 2014, and 13.4 cents/lb in 2015. Prices increased to 16.6 cents/lb in 2016. World sugar production increased 3.0% in 2016 while consumption increased by less than 1%. World sugar prices are expected to decrease to 13.7 cents/lb by 2026. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 30.6 cents/lb in 2016 to near 33.1 cents/lb by 2026. It is projected that Mexican exports to the United States will increase from 1.60 million metric tons in 2016 to 1.93 million metric tons in 2026. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.