System Dynamics Model with Human Development Paradigm for Projection of Electricity Needs per Household 2016-2050 in Papua Province – Indonesia

Abstract

Population growth and economic growth often used as driving factors to make electricity demand growth projections. However, this projection method cannot be used entirely in the Papua Province because the industrial sector has not developed yet, and the trade andservices sectors are still relatively small and scattered. This paper proposes a new method that is mostappropriate to the characteristics of the region and population distribution in Papua Province, namely by using population growth and human development index (HDI) as driving factors for electricity demand growth projection. Using the system dynamics model and using 2015as the baseyear, the projection of average electricity needs per household in 20162050 in Papua Province have simulated. Biak-Numfor Regency, Jayapura Municipality, Jayawijaya Regency andMerauke Regency with different topography conditions were selected in this study to demonstrate the application of system dynamics model with the human development paradigm for projection of electricity needs per household in Papua Province. The method used in this study is the exponential regression between HDI as the independent variable and the average electricity consumption per household as the dependent variable. System dynamics modeling and simulation isdone using Powersim studio tool. At the beginning of the simulation year obtained HDI were 71.47;78.93; 55.03and 68.41 respectively in Biak-Numfor Regency, Jayapura Municipality, Jayawijaya Regency, and Merauke Regency, and at the end of the simulation year obtained HDI were 83.65; 87.80; 75.88 and 83.56. At the beginning of the simulation year obtained average electricity needs per household were 1,649; 2,810; 2,361 and 2,045 in kWh units respectively in Biak-Numfor Regency, Jayapura Municipality, Jayawijaya Regency, and Merauke Regency. At the end of thesimulation year obtained average electricity needs per household were 2,250; 5,466; 4,340 and 4,360 in kWh units.