The Causal Impact of Economic and Health Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment

Abstract

The causal nexus between socio-economic insecurity and anti-immigration sentiments remains unclear despite correlational evidence. We exploit the disruption brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak to randomly provide survey respondents with information about the consequences of the epidemic. We find that pessimistic information about both the economic and health consequences causally reinforces the desire to restrict access to health care to native residents. Further, the prospect of dire economic consequences brings about a general adversity to immigration as well as political radicalisation. Both effects are less pronounced in areas with larger immigrant populations. Our theoretical model pins down two possible mechanisms explaining these results: a zero-sum game to split scarce public resources between residents and immigrants on the one hand and, on the other, fear of contagion. These also shape the tradeoff between prioritizing residents and extending vaccination programmes to immigrants to lower contagion risk.