Tax non-compliance detection using co-evolution of tax evasion risk and audit likelihood

Erik Hemberg, Jacob B. Rosen, G. Warner, Sanith Wijesinghe, Una-May O’Reilly
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引用次数: 17

Abstract

We detect tax law abuse by simulating the co-evolution of tax evasion schemes and their discovery through audits. Tax evasion accounts for billions of dollars of lost income each year. When the IRS pursues a tax evasion scheme and changes the tax law or audit procedures, the tax evasion schemes evolve and change into undetectable forms. The arms race between tax evasion schemes and tax authorities presents a serious compliance challenge. Tax evasion schemes are sequences of transactions where each transaction is individually compliant. However, when all transactions are combined they have no other purpose than to evade tax and are thus non-compliant. Our method consists of an ownership network and a sequence of transactions, which outputs the likelihood of conducting an audit, and requires no prior tax return or audit data. We adjust audit procedures for a new generation of evolved tax evasion schemes by simulating the gradual change of tax evasion schemes and audit points, i.e. methods used for detecting non-compliance. Additionally, we identify, for a given audit scoring procedure, which tax evasion schemes will likely escape auditing. The approach is demonstrated in the context of partnership tax law and the Installment Bogus Optional Basis tax evasion scheme. The experiments show the oscillatory behavior of a co-adapting system and that it can model the co-evolution of tax evasion schemes and their detection.
基于逃税风险与审计可能性协同演化的税收违规侦查
我们通过模拟逃税计划的共同演变和通过审计发现逃税计划来检测税法滥用。逃税每年造成数十亿美元的收入损失。当美国国税局追查逃税计划并改变税法或审计程序时,逃税计划就会演变成无法察觉的形式。逃税计划和税务机关之间的军备竞赛对合规提出了严峻挑战。逃税计划是一系列交易,其中每笔交易都是单独合规的。然而,当所有交易合并在一起时,它们除了逃税没有其他目的,因此是不合规的。我们的方法由所有权网络和交易序列组成,它输出进行审计的可能性,并且不需要先前的纳税申报表或审计数据。我们通过模拟逃税计划和审计点(即用于检测违规行为的方法)的逐渐变化,调整新一代演变的逃税计划的审计程序。此外,对于给定的审计评分程序,我们确定哪些逃税计划可能逃避审计。该方法以合伙税法和分期付款虚假可选基逃税方案为例进行了论证。实验显示了一个共同适应系统的振荡行为,它可以模拟逃税方案的共同进化及其检测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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