Der Einfluss der Aktienkurse und Immobilienpreise auf den Konsum und die Investitionen in Deutschland

Abstract

In recent years, the Central Banks have increasingly focused their attention on the real economic consequences of real asset price fluctuations. Changes in value of financial assets caused by rising and falling asset prices influence the consumption behavior of households and the investment activities of enterprises. The present article discusses the macroeconomic effects of stock price fluctuations and home ownership price movements both in theoretical and in empirical terms. It describes the statistical concept of co-integration as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and their application to time series of post-reunification Germany. The empirical analysis serves as basis from which to derive implications for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).