Impacts of African Swine Fever on Structural Change in China’s Meat Demand

Abstract

In 2018, African Swine Fever (ASF) first broke out in China and had a noticeable effect on China’s pork market and the entire meat market. This paper models China’s meat market, including pork, beef, mutton, and poultry, and examines how the outbreak of ASF impacts structural changes in China’s meat demand. We use the inverse almost ideal demand system (IAIDS) model and employ province-level meat consumption and price data to form the panel data set of 30 provinces of China from 2015 to 2020. Our results indicate that ASF has a significant impact on the demand for pork, poultry, and mutton. Based on the estimated price flexibilities and scale flexibilities, we find that the outbreak of ASF impacts structural change in China’s meat demand. Furthermore, our results show the heterogeneity of the ASF’s effects across different provinces in China.