Using Geographic Information Systems to Analyze the Distribution and Abundance of Aedes aegypti in Africa: The Potential Role of Human Travel in Determining the Intensity of Mosquito Infestation

Abstract

Increasing attention is being paid to the impact of global climate change on yellow fever and dengue outbreaks. While useful, these studies neglect the role that travel may play in the distribution of Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of both viruses. Even less attention has been paid to the role travel patterns play in affecting the ecology of this vector. To help refocus the debate and illustrate how geographic information systems (GIS) can assist analysis, a global study of Ae. aegypti was digitized. Subsequently, several basic and advanced analyses of the surveys located in Africa were undertaken. Publicly available road data for the continent were included, along with recently published LandScan population data. A novel method for examining correlations within the data at various distances was developed. These correlations were then substantiated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and found to be significant at p