Application Research on Hydrological Forecasting Based on Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

According to the requirements of flood control and drought relief and water resources utilization and management, annual runoff of Yanghe reservoir in Qinhuangdao city is forecasted based on gray dynamic model modeled, analysed and summarized. The comparative and analyzing results between calculation results and actual data prove that the model prediction accuracy is good in line with the actual situation. As the gray dynamic model has the characteristics of model structure simple, short sequence of hydrologic data need, calculate amount small and prediction accuracy high, it provides a new method to watersheds and regions who do not have a long sequence data.