Simulation and Validation of Cisco Habitat in Minnesota Lakes Using the Lethal-Niche- Boundary Curve

Abstract

Fish survival in lakes is strongly influenced by water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration. A one-dimensional (vertical) lake water quality model MINLAKE 2012 was calibrated in 23 Minnesota lakes and used to simulate daily water temperature and DO concentrations in 36 representative lake types under past (1992–2008) climate conditions and a future climate scenario (MIROC 3.2). The 36 representative Minnesota lake types were developed based on three maximum depths (H max = 4, 13, and 24 m), three surface areas (As = 0.2, 1.7, 10 km 2 ), and four Secchi depths (SD = 1.2, 2.5, 4.5, and 7 m, from eutrophic to oligotrophic lake). A fish habitat model using the lethal-niche