Recent Developments in Trade, Investment and Finance of China's Belt and Road

A. Garcia-Herrero, Jianwei Xu
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper makes a mid-term assessment for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from the perspective of trade, investment and finance, respectively. We will discuss the economic progress of the Belt and Road Initiative from the trade, investment and financial perspectives, respectively. Trade is most accessible field for China to breakthrough as it can be instantly affected by short-term policies such as removing tariff or non-tariff barriers. Our findings also confirm the rapid progress in trade, though the development was not equally distributed in the area, with the ASEAN, Middle East, South Asia and Russia constitute the largest trade share with China. Our analysis on the BRI’s spillover effect on the US and the EU reveals that the BRI plan poses actually very little substitution effect but under some scenarios even positive impact on the EU-China trade. We especially assess the impacts on the EU, which sits at the other end of the BRI area, and find that better connectedness within the BRI area will bring higher economic benefits to the EU than free trade agreements.
中国“一带一路”贸易、投资和金融的最新进展
本文分别从贸易、投资和金融三个角度对中国的“一带一路”倡议进行了中期评估。我们将分别从贸易、投资和金融三个方面讨论“一带一路”倡议的经济进展。贸易是中国最容易突破的领域,因为它可以立即受到取消关税或非关税壁垒等短期政策的影响。我们的研究结果也证实了贸易的快速发展,尽管发展在该地区的分布并不均匀,东盟、中东、南亚和俄罗斯构成了与中国最大的贸易份额。我们对“一带一路”倡议对美国和欧盟的溢出效应分析表明,“一带一路”倡议的替代效应实际上很小,但在某些情况下甚至对欧中贸易产生了积极影响。我们特别评估了对“一带一路”另一端欧盟的影响,发现加强“一带一路”内部互联互通将比自由贸易协定给欧盟带来更高的经济效益。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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