Did Sanctions Help Putin?

Abstract

Do sanctions strengthen the targeted regime? I analyze the 2014 imposition of Western sanctions on Russia and its impact on voting. The United States and the European Union introduced targeted measures against Russian entities and individuals related to President Putin’s regime. Using polling station-level data I investigate whether President Putin gained relatively more support among those local constituencies which were geographically close to a sanctioned firm. I find a significant effect of targeted sanctions imposition on the vote share in presidential elections between 2012 and 2018. Polling stations exposed to a sanctioned firm displayed larger increase in support for presidential candidate Putin. The effect is mediated through an increasingly patriotic rhetoric on Russian state TV. Contrary to policymakers’ hopes, modern-day targeted sanctions seem to be beneficial to a dictator.