Comment

H. Kotz
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Abstract

The financial crisis hit European economies differentially. On impact, the shock was mediated by the varying structural characteristics of Euroland’s financial markets. While rules and regulations are the prerogative of the EU level, thus largely harmonized, financial systems still show a significant variety, bearing distinctive national traits. The secondround impact was about repercussions in the real economy. Here, again, the asymmetric response reflected substantial differences in the sectoral composition of European Monetary Union (EMU) member economies. Vulnerable in particular were those sectors that had, on the back of low interest rates, generated capacities (especially in the construction sector), which were (ex post) seen as economically nonviable. In an older vocabulary this would have been called “overaccumulation,” all of this calling for a deep, structural adjustment process, having essentially to do with the supply side. This is, in a broad-brushway, the scenario onwhich Christopher Erceg and Jesper Lindé want to shed light. Presenting a very well-written and convincingly structured paper, which was definitely a pleasure to read, theymake at the same time a policy proposition that flies flatly in the face of at least prevailing European perceptions. Namely, they suggest that bigger countries with a more sustainable debt position should use their “fiscal space” to give their peripheral brethren a helping hand via a strongly discretionary budgetary impulse. In fact, this was an argument also frequently referred to in the debates (and deliberations) in the Group
评论
金融危机对欧洲经济体的冲击不同。就影响而言,冲击是由欧元区金融市场不同的结构特征所调节的。虽然规则和条例是欧盟层面的特权,因此在很大程度上是协调一致的,但金融体系仍然表现出显著的多样性,具有鲜明的国家特征。第二个影响是对实体经济的影响。在这里,不对称的反应再次反映了欧洲货币联盟(EMU)成员国经济部门构成的巨大差异。特别脆弱的是那些在低利率的支持下产生能力(特别是在建筑部门)的部门,这些部门(事后)被认为在经济上不可行的。用旧的词汇来说,这将被称为“过度积累”,所有这些都需要一个深层次的结构性调整过程,本质上与供给侧有关。这就是Christopher Erceg和Jesper lind想要揭示的大致情况。这是一篇文笔非常好、结构令人信服的论文,读起来绝对令人愉悦。与此同时,他们提出了一项政策主张,至少与欧洲的主流观念背道而驰。也就是说,他们建议,债务状况更可持续的大国应该利用其“财政空间”,通过强烈的自由裁量预算冲动,向外围国家伸出援手。事实上,这也是工作组的辩论(和审议)中经常提到的一个论点
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