A contextual collaborative approach for app usage forecasting

Abstract

Fine-grained long-term forecasting enables many emerging recommendation applications such as forecasting the usage amounts of various apps to guide future investments, and forecasting users' seasonal demands for a certain commodity to find potential repeat buyers. For these applications, there often exists certain homogeneity in terms of similar users and items (e.g., apps), which also correlates with various contexts like users' spatial movements and physical environments. Most existing works only focus on predicting the upcoming situation such as the next used app or next online purchase, without considering the long-term temporal co-evolution of items and contexts and the homogeneity among all dimensions. In this paper, we propose a contextual collaborative forecasting (CCF) model to address the above issues. The model integrates contextual collaborative filtering with time series analysis, and simultaneously captures various components of temporal patterns, including trend, seasonality, and stationarity. The approach models the temporal homogeneity of similar users, items, and contexts. We evaluate the model on a large real-world app usage dataset, which validates that CCF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both accuracy and efficiency for long-term app usage forecasting.