Assessing ICT's enabling effect through case study extrapolation — The example of smart metering

J. Malmodin, Vlad C. Coroamă
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

In recent years, numerous studies estimated the potential environmental benefits of ICT products and services. These studies usually extrapolate the results of small case studies to society-wide potentials. We analyse one of the most popular ICT services envisioned to induce such benefits, smart metering. Reviewing existing pilot studies, we establish an inverse correlation between the size of the case study and the resulted average energy reductions, casting a shadow over such extrapolations. We discuss several possible reasons for this inverse correlation, most importantly the representativeness of the case study. We also estimate the own life-cycle impact of smart meters, another topic often ignored in the literature. Building on these insights, we then present three own future scenarios for smart metering, which analyse the potential for energy and emission reductions in Sweden, the EU, the US and the world.
通过案例研究外推法评估信息通信技术的促进作用-以智能电表为例
近年来,许多研究估计了信息通信技术产品和服务的潜在环境效益。这些研究通常将小案例研究的结果外推到全社会的潜力。我们分析了最受欢迎的信息通信技术服务之一,即智能电表。回顾现有的试点研究,我们在案例研究的规模和结果的平均能源减少之间建立了负相关关系,为这种推断投下了阴影。我们讨论了这种负相关的几个可能的原因,最重要的是案例研究的代表性。我们还估计了智能电表本身的生命周期影响,这是另一个在文献中经常被忽视的话题。在这些见解的基础上,我们提出了智能计量的三种未来情景,分析了瑞典、欧盟、美国和世界的能源和减排潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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