Linear Regression Model to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in Tangerang City

Abstract

The outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome virus disease in China at the end of 2019 has caused a global epidemic as well as high mortality rates in affected countries. This research aimed at examining the extent of the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Tangerang City. The data used included the data of confirmed Covid-19 patients. Such data was integrated with geospatial data found in 13 sub-districts in Tangerang City. The prediction of the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases was made by using Linear Regression model. The results of the MAPE calculation with a value below 10% in 13 districts resulted in a very good predictive value. This prediction resulted in a graph and was connected to each other in a thematic map coordinate point system. The results of the Covid-19 spread prediction were divided into several districts and indicated with different color variations. Therefore, the darker the resulting color on the thematic map visualization, indicates an increase in Covid-19 cases that have occurred.