PENGARUH STABILITAS MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN NASIONAL

Abstract

ABSTRACTObjectives of this research is to analyze: Does monetary stability affect Indonesia's GDP?; Does the difference ingovernance regimes affect the governance of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP?; Doesmonetary stability affect Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?; Does the difference in government regimes affect themanagement of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?.The research method uses descriptive-quantitative analysis with saturated sampling techniques and secondary datafrom Bank Indonesia, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the WorldBank, and other reference sources. The data is in the form of time series data from the period 1990-2019. The dependentvariable is the value of GDP and GDP per capita (ICP). While the independent variable: the exchange rate, the money supply,the inflation rate, direct investment, financing, the state budget, the amount of debt (US $), the number of exports, the numberof imports, and the dummy variable period of the reform era government with the era of the New Order Government(Soeharto) as comparison or reference. The processed data were analyzed in quantitative descriptive with multipleregression models with dummy variables.The result is that some indicators of monetary stability (money supply, exchange rate, BI rate, investment, imports, andthe state budget) have a significant effect on the economy (GDP). While inflation, financing and foreign debt did notsignificantly affect GDP achievement. The Reformation government regimes (BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, MegawatiSukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) are different and better than the New Order (Soeharto)government in managing stability towards achieving GDP. The econometrics model is GDP$ = 178,542 + 0.0999 * M1M2 -0.0186 * EXCHANGE $ + 9.5872 * BI_RATE + 1.1935 * INVEST $ - 0.000225 * IMPORT + 0.181 * APBN + 182.488 * REZIM1 +171.038 * REZIM2 + 199.86 * REZIM3 + REVIMIM3 + 214.599 * REZIM5. Some indicators of monetary stability (money supply,exchange rate, BI rate, investment, import and APBN) also have a significant effect on GDP per capita. While inflation,financing and foreign debt did not significantly affect the achievement of GDP per capita. The Reform era government regime(BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) differed andmore better than the New Order era administration (Soeharto) in governance stability. to the achievement of GDP per capita.The econometric model: PCIUS$ = 5.7594 + 0.0032 * M1M2 - 0.0006 * EXCHANGE$ + 0.3092 * BI_RATE + 0.0385 * INVEST$ -0.0000072 * IMPORT + 0.0058 * APBN + 5.8867 * REZIM1 + 5.5173 * REZIM2 + 6.4471 * REZIM3 + 6.ZZ * REZIM5.JEL CLASSIFICATION: E52, E58, E63Keywords: economy, financial, GDP, monetary, PCI, stability