Analysis of economic activity using mobile phone GPS data and estimating impact of COVID-19

Abstract

In order to understand what is happening in the underlying economy it is useful to be able to gain a picture of what people are doing. For example, when people go out on the weekend, they may do so in order to engage in some kind of economic activity. In this research, we measured the level of economic activity by gaining a macro picture of people's movements. Specifically, we used the location data (GPS data) of mobile phones owned by the customers of major Japanese mobile carrier au to measure changes in the movements of people in key urban areas, and to show the relationship between these changes and macroeconomic variables. Our results found a notable correlation between the number of visitors to Shinjuku area in Tokyo on weekends/holidays and GDP consumer spending and spending-related government statistics such as the Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity and the Current Survey of Commerce. In addition, in Japan, the spread of COVID-19 has had a marked impact on people's economic activity in 2020. In order to confirm the details of this change, we analyzed the weekly change in the number of visitors to some commercial area in Tokyo. As a result, we confirm that there has been a dramatic change in people's behavior since the middle of February, when people became more aware of COVID-19 in Japan.