32 Factorial Design and Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in West Africa

Richard Ayamah, Samuel Kwarteng, A. Obeng, Patrick Kwame Babah
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Abstract

The coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) is a worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research is therefore aimed at using experimental design to derive a model for the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa. In effect, 32 factorial design with mixed factors was used to design the data layout with country as the random factor and status of COVID-19 patient as the fixed factor. Under country, Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana were randomly selected as the three levels from the seventeen West African countries while under status of COVID-19 patient, recovery, death and active cases were the three fixed levels used. The data for the study were collected based on the monthly recorded number of the various COVID-19 cases (i.e. recovery cases, death cases and active cases out of the total confirmed cases) for the period from February to September, 2020. The data were retrieved from the reports on COVID-19 given by the respective country’s health authorities and published on their various websites. In effect, a mixed effect model was derived through formulation processes for the prediction of the various COVID-19 cases across West Africa. Also, different residual analyses were conducted for the model adequacy checking and it proved that the model was adequate in the estimation of the various COVID-19 cases in the West African Sub-region. This therefore makes it the first time experimental design and analysis has successfully been used for a study of this nature on the spread of COVID-19 in West Africa.
COVID-19在西非传播的析因设计和模型
2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)是由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-COV-2)引起的全球大流行疾病。因此,本研究旨在利用实验设计推导出COVID-19在西非传播的模型。实际上,采用混合因素的32因子设计,以国家为随机因素,COVID-19患者状态为固定因素来设计数据布局。在国家项下,从17个西非国家中随机选择尼日利亚、塞内加尔和加纳作为三个水平,而在COVID-19患者状态下,使用康复、死亡和活跃病例三个固定水平。该研究的数据是根据2020年2月至9月期间每月记录的各种COVID-19病例数(即确诊病例总数中的康复病例、死亡病例和活跃病例)收集的。数据摘自各国卫生当局提交的2019冠状病毒病报告,并在其各种网站上公布。实际上,通过制定过程得出了一个混合效应模型,用于预测西非各地的各种COVID-19病例。此外,对模型的充分性进行了不同的残差分析,证明了该模型对西非次区域各种COVID-19病例的估计是充分的。因此,这是首次成功地将实验设计和分析用于研究COVID-19在西非的传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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